US −20.0%, Hong Kong +15.5%, Vietnam +22.4% checked line-by-line against Customs' own tables, plus the 2026 persistence picture
Research date: 14 September 2026 (AEST)
Lane: tmp/lanes/2/w2-gacc-primary/ · Run: china-export-sectors-20260913T235605407235Z · Date of work: 2026-09-14 (AEST, UTC+10)
Method: real Chrome via CDP (browser_exec) for every live attempt; primary GACC documents fetched as raw file downloads (.xls / archived HTML tables) and parsed locally. No text-extractor was used as the retrieval route for any customs page.
Headline: the live GACC estate is unreachable from this host (WAF returns HTTP 504 to our IP). I therefore retrieved GACC's own files and table pages through the Internet Archive as the transport, verified each file's bytes, and parsed them locally. Everything marked primary below is the GACC document itself (its Excel/HTML table), not a news rewrite. The 2025 full-year commodity and chapter tables are the one thing I could not obtain — the exact pages exist on the live site but were never archived.
| URL | What actually happened |
|---|---|
https://english.customs.gov.cn/ | Chrome TLS interstitial ("Your connection is not private") → clicked Advanced → Proceed → HTTP 504. Rendered body: 504 / Client:157.211.56.146 Node:c80bc51 Time:14/Sep/2026:09:09:11 +0800 / 知道创宇云防御节点 工作正常 / 线路 连接超时 / english.customs.gov.cn 服务器状态未知 |
https://www.customs.gov.cn/ | Same TLS interstitial → click-through → HTTP 504 (Knownsec/知道创宇 node 074bd60, 08:42 Beijing) |
https://www.customs.gov.cn/customs/302249/302274/302275/index.html (海关统计快讯 index) | TLS interstitial; click-through → 504. Over plain http:// the browser returns an empty error page (0 bytes) |
http://stats.customs.gov.cn/ (海关统计数据在线查询平台) | HTTP 412 (WAF challenge), 2,471 bytes, no data |
https://english.customs.gov.cn/Statistics/Statistics?ColumnId=1 | TLS interstitial → click-through → 504 |
https://english.customs.gov.cn/Excel/1_2-en-美元-2026-06_USD45.xls (a table file, tried directly) | TLS interstitial → blocked, no bytes delivered |
https://example.com/ (control) | 200, renders normally — so the failure is specific to the customs estate |
Diagnostics: DNS for both hosts resolves only to WAF CNAMEs (*.cname.365cyd.cn → 27.155.113.149 / 36.158.231.195 / 59.63.226.68 / 116.211.128.151). Egress IP is 157.211.56.146 (Melbourne, AU, AS4764). Both the browser and curl see the same WAF error, i.e. the block is at the CDN edge, not a rendering problem. capture_screenshot() timed out (>60 s) on those error pages, so the evidence above is the rendered document.body.innerText of the page, quoted verbatim.
All of these are GACC-issued files/pages (english.customs.gov.cn, www.customs.gov.cn), fetched with …/web/<ts>id_/<original> so the bytes are the original ones:
| # | GACC document | Fetched as | Integrity check | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | (2) Imports and Exports by Country (Region) of Origin/Destination, 12.2025 (＝进出口商品国别（地区）总值表 2025 年 12 月) — Statics page | archived HTML, 228,536 B, capture 20260126213414 | 276 parsed table rows; TOTAL row reconciles with the (1) totals | ||
| P2 | 1_1-en-人民币-2025-12_CNY25.xls = 表(1) 进出口商品总值表 (人民币), Dec 2025 | BIFF .xls 9,216 B (d0 cf 11 e0 OLE2 magic), capture 20260830082718 | parsed with xlrd | ||
| P3 | 1_2-en-美元-2025-5_USD45.xls = 表(1) 总值表 (USD), content = Nov 2025 | BIFF 9,728 B, capture 20260830082535 | — | ||
| P4 | 1_2-en-美元-2026-06_USD45.xls = 表(1) 总值表 (USD), Jun 2026 | BIFF 9,728 B, capture 20260830082711 | 1-6月 exports match P9 exactly | ||
| P5 | 1_1-en-人民币-2026-03_CNY25.xls = 表(1) 总值表 (人民币), Mar 2026 | BIFF 9,216 B, capture 20260830082737 | — | ||
| P6 | 1_10-en-美元-2026-05-USD45.xls = 表(5) China's Major Exports by Quantity and Value, May 2026 (USD) | BIFF 18,432 B, capture 20260726063731 | 43 rows; totals consistent with P4/P9 | ||
| P7 | 1__12-en-美元-2026-03_USD45.xls = 表(6) Major Imports, Mar 2026 (USD) | BIFF 16,384 B, capture 20260726063728 | 50 rows | ||
| P8 | 2026-07_M122USD_（2）进出口商品国别（地区）总值表（美元值）.xls | BIFF 68,096 B, capture 20260820213814 | 277 rows | ||
| P9 | 中国海关统计月报 (Chinese) file set under www.customs.gov.cn/customs/302249/zfxxgk/2799825/302274/302277/302276/<id>/<file>.xls — releases of 2025-02 / 2025-04 / 2025-06, e.g. （3）2025年6月进出口商品构成表（美元值）, （4）2025年6月进出口商品类章总值表（美元值）, （2）…国别（地区）总值表, （1）…总值表(美元值)A:年度表/B:月度表 | BIFF, 125 files downloaded locally under `tmp/…/xls_cn_2025-02 | 04 | 06/`, captures 20250731–20250804 | parsed with xlrd |
| P10 | (16) Imports by Selected Countries (Regions) and by HS Divisions, 12.2025 | archived HTML 60,280 B, capture 20260320095443 | — | ||
| P11 | (3) Composition of Imports and Exports by Section and Division, 9.2025 (SITC basis) | archived HTML, 81 rows | — | ||
| P12 | (4) China's Total Export & Import Values by Country/Region, Dec 2025 (in USD) | archived HTML, 35 rows | — | ||
| P13 | (13) Major Export Commodities in Quantity and Value, 1-11.2025 | archived HTML, 205 rows | reached but NOT usable — see §4.4 | ||
| P14 | (3) Composition of Imports and Exports by Section and Division, 12.2025 (＝进出口商品构成表, SITC Rev.3) | archived HTML 59,555 B, capture 20260320095302 | TOTAL row reproduces the (1)/(2) totals exactly |
Live index pages that did render (through the Archive) and confirm the portal's own structure: english.customs.gov.cn/Statistics/Statistics?ColumnId=1..6 — Statistics ▸ Preliminary Release / Trade Indices / Monthly Bulletin / Quarterly Release / Release Calendar / Explanatory Notes / Coverage of Major Imports & Exports / Interactive Tables. The Col-1 listing for the archived snapshot (capture 2026-08-30) shows Jul 2026 as the newest release, i.e. Aug 2026 was not yet published when the last capture was taken.
Source tier: [P] = GACC primary document (own Excel/HTML table), reached via Internet Archive transport and parsed locally.
进出口商品国别（地区）总值表, 1-to-12 2025 [P1] (unit US$1,000)Parent value → primary value (exports column) / exports YoY:
| Destination | Parent | Primary 1-to-12 2025 | YoY (exports) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | USD 420.05 bn @ −20.0% | 420,050,082 | −20.0% | CONFIRMED |
| Hong Kong, China | USD 335.6 bn @ +15.5% | 335,608,716 | +15.5% | CONFIRMED |
| Viet Nam | USD 198.1 bn @ +22.4% | 198,147,184 | +22.4% | CONFIRMED |
| Japan | USD 157.3 bn | 157,347,482 | +3.5% | CONFIRMED |
| Republic of Korea | USD 144.2 bn | 144,211,501 | −1.1% | CONFIRMED |
| India | USD 135.9 bn | 135,872,046 | +12.8% | CONFIRMED |
| Germany | USD 118.3 bn | 118,272,433 | +10.5% | CONFIRMED |
All seven match to the parent's stated precision. Note the growth basis: the parent's US −20.0% is the exports-only series; US total trade fell −18.7% and US imports from China −14.6% — if the parent ever restates US on a total-trade basis, the number changes.
Top-15 export destinations, 2025 (primary, one source, USD bn):
Aggregates on the same page: ASEAN 665.22 (+13.4%), EU 559.95 (+8.4%), Africa 225.03 (+25.8%), Latin America 297.42 (+7.4%), North America 468.21 (−18.1%).
Total exports, 2026 YTD (USD bn): Jan–May 1,712.97 (derived) · Jan–Jun 2,125.36, +17.6% [P4] · Jan–Jul 2,522.63, +18.5% [P8]. Monthly June 2026 exports 412.39 (+27.0% YoY); total trade Jan–Jun 3,674.74 (+21.2%), imports +26.6%.
Nov 2025 reference point [P3]: Jan–Nov 2025 exports 3,414.73 (+5.4%), imports 2,338.88 (−0.6%).
Destination ranking, 2026 Jan–Jul (primary [P8], exports, USD bn, YoY):
Hong Kong 261.51 (+48.2) · United States 257.85 (+2.6) · Viet Nam 140.24 (+27.5) · Korea 110.85 (+33.3) · Japan 97.43 (+8.1) · India 93.24 (+20.6) · Germany 79.74 (+18.8) · Malaysia 78.00 (+30.5) · Thailand 77.81 (+31.4) · Russia 72.84 (+29.5) · Taiwan 62.17 (+31.6) · Netherlands 59.25 (+10.6) · Singapore 56.73 (+20.3) · Indonesia 56.46 (+18.7) · United Kingdom 54.51 (+14.0) · Mexico 54.41 (+6.1).
The persistence question this answers: the US collapse of 2025 stopped — US-bound exports went from −20.0% (2025) to +2.6% (2026 Jan–Jul), the US is no longer the #1 destination, and Hong Kong (+48.2%) has displaced it. Hong Kong's 2026 surge is led by exports (261.5) far over imports (33.4, +132.9%).
| Commodity | 1–5月 2026 value | 1–5月 2025 value | YoY value | Volume 1–5 2026 | YoY vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electronic integrated circuits | 139,076.8 | 73,214.6 | +90.0% | 1,477.6 亿个 | +8.7% |
| Motor vehicles (incl. chassis) | 73,571.6 | 48,907.7 | +50.4% | 423.8 万辆 | +48.7% |
| Ships | 25,249.8 | 19,967.7 | +26.5% | 2,637 艘 | −3.7% |
| Mobile phones | 44,866.5 | 42,330.0 | +6.0% | 27,164 万台 | −2.5% |
| Electric appliances of household type | 42,784.8 | 41,017.4 | +4.3% | 191,755 万台 | +4.1% |
| Automatic data processing machines & parts | 110,936.3 | 79,975.7 | +38.7% | — | — |
| Refined petroleum products | 16,027.3 | 14,454.8 | +10.9% | 1,923.3 万吨 | −12.0% |
| Products of steel or iron | 31,142.0 | 34,010.7 | −8.4% | 4,455.4 万吨 | −8.1% |
| Unwrought aluminium & products | 10,560.3 | 8,476.6 | +24.6% | 268.5 万吨 | +10.4% |
| Fertilizers | 3,346.9 | 2,711.6 | +23.4% | 1,436.4 万吨 | +11.9% |
| Rare-earth ore, metals, compounds | 243.6 | 168.1 | +44.9% | 25,378 t | +2.2% |
| Medical & pharmaceutical products | 11,485.3 | 10,652.7 | +7.8% | 71.1 万吨 | +7.6% |
| Garments & clothing accessories | 57,244.3 | 58,184.9 | −1.6% | — | — |
| Textile yarn, fabrics & articles | 59,482.5 | 58,465.6 | +1.7% | — | — |
| Footwear | 15,756.9 | 17,572.6 | −10.3% | 34.85 亿双 | −5.7% |
| Plastic articles | 46,513.7 | 42,772.9 | +8.7% | — | — |
| Toys | 12,187.3 | 13,945.0 | −12.6% | — | — |
| Memo: Mechanical & electrical products | 1,089,884.7 | 890,289.1 | +22.4% | — | — |
| Memo: Hi-tech products | 485,304.0 | 358,324.5 | +35.4% | — | — |
[P9] The Chinese 统计月报 (monthly bulletin) contains, as a numbered table:
So the answer to the parent's question is: GACC publishes HS-2 chapter values directly (table 4 of 月报); the 进出口商品构成表 specifically is SITC-based, not HS, and the chapter-level table needs to be cited instead. Extracted chapter values, 2025 Jan–Jun (USD, primary [P9] （4）2025年6月进出口商品类章总值表（美元值）):
| HS | Exports 1–6月 2025 (USD bn) | YoY | Imports 1–6月 2025 (USD bn) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HS 84 核反应堆、锅炉、机械器具及零件 | 297.25 | +8.6% | 122.15 | +18.0% |
| HS 85 电机、电气设备及其零件 | 465.92 | +8.3% | 281.98 | +4.2% |
| 类 XVI (84+85) | 763.16 | +8.4% | 404.13 | +8.0% |
| 出口总值 | 1,809.04 | +5.9% | — | — |
Same release, 构成表 (SITC) 1–6月 2025: 初级产品 exports USD 76.90 bn (−2.0%), 工业制品 USD 1,732.14 bn (+6.3%).
The parent no longer needs to reconstruct it: [P1] is the GACC partner table itself for 1-to-12 2025, and [P8] is the same table for 1-to-7 2026.
(3) Composition of Imports and Exports by Section and Division, 12.2025 (capture 20260320095302), unit US$1,000, columns = December month and 1-to-12 cumulative, with YoY:
Classification warning for the parent: this table is SITC Rev.3, not HS. SITC 75/76/77 are not HS 84/85 and must not be relabelled as such; SITC 77 (electrical machinery, 694.0 bn) is the closest analogue to HS 85 but is a different basket. For HS chapters use table (4)/（15）-（16） (§2.5).
Nothing in the parent's list was wrong. All seven partner values and the two YoY rates given (US −20.0%, HK +15.5%, Vietnam +22.4%) reproduce exactly from the primary GACC table [P1]. Two precision notes, offered as corrections to basis, not to values:
The page exists (english.customs.gov.cn/Statics/7367d7db-…html, "(5) China's Major Exports by Quantity and Value, Dec 2025 (in USD)"; CNY twin b36c1066-…html; the same tables are Excel …_2025-12_…xls on the Chinese 统计月报 path) but no capture exists in the Internet Archive (CDX returns empty for those URLs) and the live origin is WAF-blocked. Consequently the parent's 2025 annual line values (IC 201.9 bn +26.8%, motor vehicles 142.5 bn +21.4%, ships 55.1 bn +26.7%, etc.) cannot be CONFIRMED from primary. I am not substituting a secondary source and calling it primary.
Consequence for the parent: the directional 2025 commodity story can still be supported from primary material I hold — [P6] gives the 2025 Jan–May baselines in the same table layout, and [P11]/[P9] give the SITC/chapter aggregates — but no primary 1-to-12 2025 line item is available in this lane.
A non-primary cross-check (Tier 3, do not cite as GACC): the Chinese trade-association site cceeccic.org republishes "2025年12月全国出口重点商品量值表（美元值）" with "来源：海关总署": IC 1-to-12 201,901.0 USD mn (+26.8%, 3,494.7 亿个), motor vehicles 142,455.3 (+21.4%), ships 55,084.9 (+26.7%). These agree with the parent's stated figures, which raises confidence in the parent's numbers — but they remain a mirror, not the primary file.
The last archived snapshot of the GACC Statistics listing (capture 2026-08-30) shows July 2026 as the newest release; the Aug-2026 release had not been published at that capture, and no later capture exists. The closest primary partial-year data reachable is Jan–Jul 2026 (partners, [P8]) and Jan–May/Jun 2026 (commodities/totals, [P6][P4]). Any parent statement about "Jan–Aug 2026" is unverifiable from primary here.
Chapter tables are primary-published (table 4 / English (15)-(16)), and I can produce them for 2025 Jan–Jun [P9]; the Dec-2025 chapter table ((4) … 类章总值表, and its English mirror (15) Exports by Selected Countries (Regions) and by HS Divisions, 12.2025) is not present in the Archive on either path. So HS 84/85 2025 full-year values stay unreached. (Note: the full-year SITC composition is reached — [P14], §2.7 — but SITC sections are not HS chapters.)
(13) Major Export Commodities in Quantity and Value, 1-11.2025 page — reached, but its numbers are internally inconsistent → NOT USEDThis is a genuine GACC page [P13] (205 rows, unit line "RMB￥10,000"). But its values do not reconcile with GACC's own (5)-family tables: it gives electronic ICs 1–11月 2025 = 18,013.6 亿 (CNY 1.80 trn) and "Mechanical and electrical products" = CNY 20.79 trn — the latter would be 84% of China's total exports, against GACC's own (5) table showing 机电产品 at 16.47 trn CNY for the full year (≈61%). Its volumes do reconcile (IC 1–11 = 319.9 bn units vs 1–12 = 349.5 bn). Every value I could cross-check is inflated by ≈1.39–1.44×. I therefore record it as reached-but-unreconciled and use none of its values.
[P] GACC primary documents (retrieved via Internet Archive transport; local copies under tmp/lanes/2/w2-gacc-primary/)
http://english.customs.gov.cn/Statics/ef1a478f-8a43-4b51-9690-fb975762a2c2.html — （2）Imports and Exports by Country（Region）of Origin/Destination, 12.2025 — capture 20260126213414 → statics/partner_12-2025.htmlhttp://english.customs.gov.cn/Excel/1_1-en-人民币-2025-12_CNY25.xls — 表(1) 总值表 人民币, Dec 2025 — capture 20260830082718 → xls/gacc_en_2025-12_CNY_t1-1.xlshttp://english.customs.gov.cn/Excel/1_2-en-美元-2025-5_USD45.xls — 表(1) 总值表 USD, content Nov 2025 — capture 20260830082535http://english.customs.gov.cn/Excel/1_2-en-美元-2026-06_USD45.xls — 表(1) 总值表 USD, Jun 2026 — capture 20260830082711http://english.customs.gov.cn/Excel/1_1-en-人民币-2026-03_CNY25.xls — 表(1) 总值表 人民币, Mar 2026 — capture 20260830082737http://english.customs.gov.cn/Excel/1_10-en-美元-2026-05-USD45.xls — 表(5) Major Exports by Quantity and Value, May 2026 (USD) — capture 20260726063731http://english.customs.gov.cn/Excel/1__12-en-美元-2026-03_USD45.xls — 表(6) Major Imports, Mar 2026 (USD) — capture 20260726063728http://english.customs.gov.cn/Excel/2026-07_M122USD_（2）进出口商品国别（地区）总值表（美元值）.xls — capture 20260820213814http://www.customs.gov.cn/customs/302249/zfxxgk/2799825/302274/302277/302276/<release-id>/<file>.xls — 中国海关统计月报 file sets for the 2025-01/02, 2025-03, 2025-04, 2025-05, 2025-06 releases (e.g. 2025071810132290169.xls = （4）2025年6月进出口商品类章总值表（美元值）; 2025071810103621599.xls = （3）2025年6月进出口商品构成表（美元值）; 2025071810051588140.xls = （2）国别（地区）总值表） — captures 20250731–20250804 → local xls_cn_2025-02|04|06/http://english.customs.gov.cn/Statics/67b0f2b4-20f2-405b-bd3c-d82f58ca29f6.html — （16）Imports by Selected Countries (Regions) and by HS Divisions, 12.2025 — capture 20260320095443http://english.customs.gov.cn/Statics/23666c89-4d65-4d50-8094-d972e0dbdaca.html — （3）Composition of Imports and Exports by Section and Division, 9.2025 (SITC)http://english.customs.gov.cn/Statics/3a0a3d5b-7a93-4be7-876a-e0f3b79b4e8c.html — （4）Total Export & Import Values by Country/Region, Dec 2025 (USD)http://english.customs.gov.cn/Statics/3bd401c1-5031-42d8-b58d-8ec987287cac.html — （13）Major Export Commodities in Quantity and Value, 1-11.2025 — reached, values not used (§4.4)http://english.customs.gov.cn/Statistics/Statistics?ColumnId=1..6 — portal structure and release listing (archived captures 20260726, 20260820, 20260830)http://english.customs.gov.cn/Statics/d38583a2-60ea-4106-87f3-6d7c8309a6b6.html — （3）Composition of Imports and Exports by Section and Division, 12.2025 (SITC, full-year 2025) — capture 20260320095302 → html/gacc_en_12.2025_t3_composition_SITC.dec.html. Its TOTAL row (exports 3,771,842,417 / +5.5%) reproduces [P1] and [P2] independently, which is the check that lets it be used.html/statics2026/20260117214243_d3d7eb66-7c4.html = (5) China's Major Exports … March 2025 (in CNY); html/statics2026/20260206220339_01258a9c-e0c.html = (4) … Country/Region, November 2023 (in USD).[L] Live GACC endpoints attempted and blocked (recorded, no data): https://www.customs.gov.cn/, https://english.customs.gov.cn/, …/Statistics/Statistics?ColumnId=1, …/Excel/*.xls, http://stats.customs.gov.cn/ (HTTP 412), http://www.customs.gov.cn/customs/302249/zfxxgk/2799825/302274/302277/302276/index.html.
[T2] Government/agency re-publication of the same GACC release (context only): https://www.gov.cn/lianbo/fabu/202601/content_7054752.htm — SCIO press conference on 2025 full-year trade (2026-01-14): 全年进出口 45.47 万亿元 +3.8%, 出口 26.99 万亿元 +6.1%, 进口 18.48 万亿元 +0.5%. Used only as corroboration of [P1]/[P2]; not a substitute for the table.
[T3] Non-primary mirror (flagged, not used as evidence): cceeccic.org/246050034.html — "2025年12月全国出口重点商品量值表（美元值）", source line "来源：海关总署", published 2026-02-24.
.xls, row counts and internal total-vs-part reconciliation for HTML tables).